British economist, statistician (now he would be called a demographer), and clergyman in the Church of England, who is best known for his Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, first published in 1798. A second edition in 1803 included information collected on trips to the other main European countries. His central idea, although not original, was that population growth would always exceed the growth in food supply.
Malthus pointed out that populations tend to grow at a geometric rate (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32), while the food supply tends to grow at an arithmetic rate (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). So he foresaw populations growing by unrestricted reproduction and food supply restricted by the law of diminishing returns. He was firmly convinced that the difference between the two growth curves, with the population growth inevitably outstripping the food supply, would result in poverty and hunger for the masses. A solution to the problem, according to Malthus, would be celibacy, late marriages, and moral restraint yet he was not optimistic about anyone taking his advice. It was because of this pessimism of Malthus, and others who agreed with him, that economics came to be termed “the dismal science.” But a clergyman of the English church at the time could suggest none other; he was writing before the development of birth control devices, although induced abortion and infanticide were practiced. He was also writing before industrial dominance of the land had developed or was thoroughly understood, and his education and his thinking were probably influenced by a group of economic philosophers called the “Physiocrats,” who believed in the primary importance of the land and agriculture. He therefore underestimated the scope of technological progress on agricultural productivity.